We have been warning about a possible macro downtrend and the possibility that ethereum will continue to underperform bitcoin for the rest of this year. What has happened? For the moment, the month of August activated the bearish trend which we anticipated and hit the first target (2270). Let's analyze what this new trend brings and the reaction of the most recent fall:

According to previous historical data, these levels tend to hold for periods between 4 to 5 months. It is not unusual for us to have a consolidation between $2270 - $2800 for the remainder of 2024. The only problem would be the downtrend which has just started on the monthly but considering that it reached the target on the first attempt before the close of the month... It should calm down a bit before printing new lows. 

Crab Scenario

Monthly looks disastrous but it is holding at a pivotal level which has endured on previous price history.

I am anticipating multiple tests at $2270 for what is to come this year. 

Death Scenario

In the event we lose $2270, focus on waiting for $1600. Sounds drastic but better to be prepared than sorry. 

Pivotal Level

If we look at another less anemic perspective, the trend remains bullish since the beginning of the run in the fourth quarter of 2023. We can see that this would be just a “fair” pullback back to a zone of critical importance which has marked pivotal levels. There is confluence for both market participants but given the history and knowing that this is the first retest, I am inclined to believe that we hold the lows for a while, which would establish a range for a good period. 

It had the retest of the second setup we discussed in the previous post. By reducing the timeframe to 4hrs it had the positive reaction we were looking for.

4hr Retest

This only marks a mean reversion play and still does not change anything about the market. The trend is still bearish and until it recovers at least $2820 there is no reason to change bias. 

Followed Reversion Play - Still a Downtrend

There is not much to talk about in this type of time frame. As I commented in the “High MCap Outlook” post, almost all the alts failed to sustain trends in timeframes shorter than the weekly. But it does help us to anticipate a possible reversal and get a better entry. 

Point of utmost importance: 

The midpoint of what this bull market carries ~$2820

Below = Bearish

Above = Bullish

Bull Market Mid Point

Otherwise, there is no need to focus on so many indicators or periods. With a few levels of importance we can act in case it picks up again or has positive reactions. 

The doom scenario is still active if we lose $2270 so keep this written on your bedside table. But lower prices always represent good opportunities so let's let the market show its hand and act on the key levels.